I am having the same exact problem as you describe. For the past 2 months or so I haven’t been able to comment on a single wordpress blog, many of which I’d commented on many time previously. I get the same page reloading but no trace of the comment and the same error message if I try to repost the comment. One blog owner told me that she’d found me in the spam and I also informed another blogger, but I can’t expect every blogger, many who are big bloggers, to unspam me. I am writing to Akismet right now to see if they can unmark me as spam!